The study, published by the Institue of International Education (IIE), outlines the importance of expanding international study to the US over the next five years as American universities brace for an impending domestic “enrolment cliff”.
“Attracting global talent is crucial to driving the US economy and growth, and maintaining US leadership” IIE’s head of research, evaluation and learning Mirka Martel told The PIE News.
Martel, co-author of the Outlook 2030 Brief, highlighted the unique capacity of the US to host more international students, who currently make up just 6% of the overall student population.
In comparison, international students comprise a much larger proportion of the total student body in the UK (27%), Australia (31%) and Canada (38%).
Notably, 36 US states were identified by IIE with international student populations below the 6% line, with Massachusetts, New York and Washington DC the regions with the highest proportions of international students.
Meanwhile, US universities are facing a much reported on domestic enrolment cliff, with government figures showing undergraduate enrolment declining by more than two million between 2010 and 2022.
What’s more, projections indicate that the number of high school graduates will peak in 2025 and decline by 13% by 2041, with IIE warning that US colleges and universities will be left with “empty seats” if they do not focus on international enrolments.
Despite recent reports of declining student interest in the US driven by the Trump administration’s hostile policies, IIE’s Fall 2024 Snapshot predicted a 3% growth in international student levels in the 2024/15 academic year.
Martel said she expected this forecast to hold true, pointing to the “exciting” fall increase in undergraduate rates for the first time since Covid and the continuing increase in Optional Practical Training (OPT) stemming from rising graduate rates over the last three years.
Outside the US, the total number of globally mobile students has seen exponential growth in recent years, nearly doubling over the past decade to reach 6.9 mil in 2024.
With last year witnessing the largest growth since the pandemic, some expect global mobility to exceed 9 million by 2030, driven by the growth of youthful populations in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
This, the report says, will create “a steady pipeline of students seeking future academic study”, highlighting the case of Nigeria where the country’s universities can only admit one-third of the two million annual applicants due to capacity constraints.
Elsewhere in India, domestic institutions have significantly expanded their undergraduate studies, but “there remains a strong interest in pursuing graduate studies abroad,” according to IIE.
Attracting global talent is crucial to driving the US economy and growth
Mirka Martel, IIE
In 2023/24, the number of international students in the US reached a record level of 1.1 million, which was primarily driven by a surge in OPT rather than new enrolments.
IIE’s 2030 Outlook highlights the $50bn contribution of international students to the US in 2024, with California ($6.4bn), New York ($6.3bn) and Massachusetts ($3.9) reaping the highest economic benefits.
What’s more, last year international students created nearly 400,000 jobs in the US, with the report highlighting their role in driving innovation in key industries, as more than half of international students in the US graduate from STEM fields.
It points to Chamber of Commerce predictions of incoming labour market shortages across healthcare, computer and mathematical sciences, and business and financial operations, with international students with US training well-poised to fill the gaps.
Beyond the numbers, “[international students] are a political and economic asset for America,” states the report: broadening perspectives in the classroom and furthering business, cultural, economic and political ties after they return home.
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